We have reviewed every single Best Picture winner in history, as a means of trying to figure out why the Academy saw fit to select these winners each year. Aside from the actual honour of being the best film of the year (which is most certainly not always the case), the Academy tends to tell a story about the state of America (and also the world) when each winner is picked. Enough political turmoil can make a safer film the more viable option. The starvation of creativity will allow riskier films to win other times. With each and every review, we hope we have detailed a greater picture for each Best Picture.

With that in mind, the 92nd Academy Award nominees are announced tomorrow morning (bright and early). We will do our usual tradition of ranking each nominee in every category (and then subsequently ranking every nominee against each other in one super list). For now, we have to get over the first hurdle: waiting to see who will be nominated. With the shifting courses of the Best Picture race, and what we know about past nominees, we have taken the time to try and predict which films the Academy will nominate for Best Picture tomorrow. We can’t guarantee our accuracy, but we’ve tried nonetheless.

Every nominee is in alphabetical order.

The race for 1917 is already picking up speed. After a few solid Golden Globe wins, Sam Mendes’ World War 1 epic will take the Academy by storm. Guaranteed to pick up nominations for technical awards, plus the accuracy of the time period created by on-set work (costumes, sets, the usual), 1917 — even if it was a bad film — would be a front runner for most nominated film at the 92nd awards, thus guaranteeing its Best Picture spot.

There is a major chance Bombshell won’t even be here, but we decided to round up to ten nominees (the official guidelines dictate between six-to-ten nominees for Best Picture, depending on the amounts of votes films get). Bombshell will already have a few acting nominations, plus an almost certain mention in the Makeup/Hair department, plus the story is current, and the film has enough recent buzz. Bombshell could be this year’s Vice: not everyone’s cup of tea, but enough of a presence to make a stink at the Oscars.

Another film that may very well not be nominated here (you can replace Ford v Ferrari and Bombshell with any of the films listed at the end of this article, honestly). We went with Ford v Ferrari, because of the technical awards it can easily pick up. There is just enough editing and sound goodness to make this biopic a contender in these kinds of categories, plus the film is super safe enough to maybe take in enough votes by the less-daring Academy members.

Martin Scorsese’s final gangster/crime film has made enough noise because of its acting, screenwriting, and even its polarizing special effects. Scorsese usually does well with nominations at these kinds of awards shows, even for his not-as-great works. For a return to form? Guaranteed Scorsese’s The Irishman will be here.

Winner of the Grolsch People’s Choice Award at the 2019 Toronto International Film Festival, Jojo Rabbit’s awards season run began months ago. The success rate of TIFF’s audience-based award never fails; Jojo Rabbit already has been nominated by every major awards ceremony since this win. It’s light enough to win people over, plus there is enough acting and world-building spirit to attract additional nominations. Let’s not underestimate this film: lest we forget the power of Green Book.

Since the Academy decided to forgo its “Popular Film” category, it has been more willing to bring in some works that are popular with the masses. Joker is controversial, but it is still strong enough to stand up against other nominees this season. On the backs of the cinematography, the music, and Joaquin Phoenix, Joker has been interpreted as a Best Picture hopeful. Toss in Todd Phillips’ head-scratching amount of Best Director nominations, and Joker is clearly destined to be mentioned tomorrow.

With the recent sprint that Greta Gerwig’s Christmastime adaptation has made, Little Women will likely be one of the final spots filled tomorrow. Unfortunately, Little Women has been neglected in these major categories (outside of acting and screenwriting), but the Academy’s ten available spots will hopefully allow this reinterpretation of the literary classic to nab a place in this category (at least for clout sake).

Even though Noah Baumbach’s Netflix drama has lost a bit of steam this season, Marriage Story is still a likely name that will be mentioned tomorrow. It has the reachable audience, the powerful acting and screenwriting, and more; let’s not forget about the publicity-expanding memes. Marriage Story has slowed down, but it’s still not entirely out.

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood has been full throttle since its July release. Somehow, it has not slowed down one iota. Maybe various awards shows are wanting this to be Quentin Tarantino’s legacy year? Who knows. After its Golden Globes wins, and the BAFTAs being very favourable to a hyper-American film of this nature (unusual, I know), Hollywood is one of the more certain films to be nominated tomorrow.

For the third time this past decade (after Amour and Roma), an international film is going to be nominated for Best Picture. Bong Joon-ho’s multi-genre thriller has picked up enough Best Director and Best Screenwriting nominations to let you know that every Best Picture nomination was far from a fluke. Parasite is here to stay. While its chances of winning are slim right now, its nomination chances are borderline guaranteed.

Other possible Best Picture nominees:
Knives Out
The Two Popes
The Farewell
Rocketman

Andreas Babiolakis has a Masters degree in Film and Photography Preservation and Collections Management from Ryerson University, as well as a Bachelors degree in Cinema Studies from York University. His favourite times of year are the Criterion Collection flash sales and the annual Toronto International Film Festival.

92nd Academy Award Best Picture Predictions