93rd Academy Award Best Picture Predictions
Written by Andreas Babiolakis
Original Art By @temi.coker.
I have reviewed every single Best Picture winner of the Academy Awards in history (you can find them all here). As many of you know by now, I find these awards to be incredible heaps of fun to try and predict, as well as look at what they say about the film industry and society at any given moment: their triumphs and their problems (believe me, their problems show heavily as time continues forth). So, the 93rd Academy Awards are this Monday (finally), and there is a lot of speculation as to what films will be nominated overall. However, for Best Picture, I feel like everything is nestling into place, and there aren’t many dark horses that may arise.
The way the Academy Awards work now is that Best Picture can have anywhere between six to ten nominees, depending on how many votes a film gets (as to eliminate any unworthy films from getting enough votes to be the tenth spot, even though that hasn’t stopped the Academy from selecting some duds over the years even with less than ten). As I have done before, I will predict ten Best Picture nominees, present them in alphabetical order, and toss a couple of possible dark horses in at the end just for good measure. Let’s see how well I do this year!
Here are your nominees, in alphabetical order.
Possibly the least likely film to be nominated, The Father seemed to have a bit of a large awards season during its opening phases, but is somewhat tapering off now (sadly). I can definitely see Anthony Hopkins being nominated, and Olivia Colman should hopefully be given some love (although her Supporting Actress chances seem to be vanishing), but I’d like to think The Father would be one of the last films to make it.
On the other hand, Judas and the Black Messiah seems to be having the complete opposite effect. Sure, parts of it are doing better than others (particularly Daniel Kaluuya for Best Supporting Actor, who is cleaning up the category in any which way), but I still think the film will be one of the more likely nominees that isn’t destined to win Best Picture presently (unless things change furthermore). If Judas and the Black Messiah scores a nomination here, it will be the first time in Academy history that a nominee is produced entirely by black producers. History is waiting to be made.
Even though Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom doesn’t seem to have a chance of winning, there are more than enough technical shoe-ins (for production, costume, makeup/hair, and more) and acting successes (particularly Chadwick Boseman’s posthumous awards season, where he has won every award under the sun) that a Best Picture nomination is beyond likely. Again, there aren’t high chances of this film winning, but it might be foolish to think it won’t be nominated here.
So Mank isn’t really slam dunking every award like some may have thought upon its release, but it is similar to Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom that there are so many award nominations (cinematography, production, costume, score, screenplay, and potential acting nominations to name a few) that it will more than likely be a Best Picture nomination guarantee. I can’t see it doing much damage outside of a few aesthetic awards, but that’s okay.
Despite the Golden Globes controversy (or maybe as a result of it), Minari has a great chance of being nominated for Best Picture, and would be the third film in a foreign language to be nominated in three years (after Roma and last year’s Best Picture winner Parasite); although Minari is an American-Korean made picture and not an international film. I’m glad that the film is doing as well as it is, but I don’t think it will win Best Picture; however, I do see the possibility of the film accruing a slew of dark horse nominations in many major categories.
The biggest probability is that Nomadland will be nominated here, especially because it is the current frontrunner to win the prize altogether (I don’t think it’s even close at this point). Given the pitch perfect awards season race the film has had ever since it was a festival darling (and won the TIFF People’s Choice Award, which almost guarantees a Best Picture nomination for the last however many years), I don’t think Nomadland’s successes are going to slow down anytime soon.
I’m sad that One Night in Miami has basically all but vanished in a number of its major categories, because it’s such a great film. However, it’s still quite possible (and likely) that the film will get enough nominations and have enough steam to get a Best Picture nod. Just don’t expect anything major; I’ll be happy if Regina King is even recognized as a Best Director at this point (she deserves to be).
While some films have lost their awards season lustre, Promising Young Woman only seems to be getting stronger. With the dark horse successes of Carey Mulligan and director/screenwriter Emerald Fennell propelling the film forwards, I think Promising Young Woman went from a “maybe” nomination to a “sure thing” Best Picture nod selection.
The possible surprise last nominee is Sound of Metal, which is getting tons of love for Riz Ahmed’s performance, Paul Raci’s supporting work, and the genius sound design work. There seems to be enough going for the film that a Best Picture nomination isn’t completely out of the realm of possibility (although I wouldn’t bank on it being certain).
The last selection here is the second most obvious after Nomadland: The Trial of the Chicago 7. If Nomadland wasn’t doing as well as it is, it may have even been the film to beat for this very award. However, the film seems to have lost its chances of dominating as much as it intended (unless something changes, which it always can). Otherwise, The Trial of the Chicago 7 is certainly going to be mentioned here.
Other possible Best Picture nominees:
Soul
News of the World
The Mauritanian
Da 5 Bloods (I wish. What happened???)
Andreas Babiolakis has a Masters degree in Film and Photography Preservation and Collections Management from Ryerson University, as well as a Bachelors degree in Cinema Studies from York University. His favourite times of year are the Criterion Collection flash sales and the annual Toronto International Film Festival.