94th Academy Award Best Picture Predictions
Written by Andreas Babiolakis
I have reviewed every single Best Picture winner of the Academy Awards in history (you can find them all here). Well, it’s time to get into full on Oscars mode. The nominations are announced bright and early February 8th, and we will kick out my rankings of every nomination category. I will cover each category one weekday at a time until we wrap up; there will be more Oscars goodness afterwards. However, let’s not get ahead of ourselves. We haven’t reached this stage of certainty yet. Anything can happen. There can still be dark horse nominees. However, part of the fun of predictions come from trying to guess what will actually get chosen as a nomination, not just as winners; that pool is much smaller and easier to guess from.
Well, I’ll be honest folks: this doesn’t seem to be shaping up for the most exciting Academy Awards, given how safe I’m guessing each pick for Best Picture will be; outside of a couple of film, most of my predictions are “good” at best. Anyway, we’ll get to all of that analysis when I’m actually ranking the Best Picture nominees towards the end of my awards season coverage. I’m only guessing what will be nominated for Best Picture, and I’ll provide my criteria why. Spoiler alert: many of my favourite films of last year won’t apply here (outside of a couple of strong films). Nonetheless, let’s place my personal preferences on the back burner and just present things as they are, as lacklustre as this year may feel in general. Here are what I think will be in the list of nominees for Best Picture this year, with a couple of honourable mentions at the end.
The list is presented in alphabetical order.
Ever since Belfast was selected by the Toronto public as the best film of TIFF 2022, its awards season began. While its power has since dropped a bit and it isn’t quite the juggernaut it was at the start of the season, Belfast is still beloved enough to almost be a guarantee here, especially because of Kenneth Branagh’s direction, the film’s cinematography, the large cast, and the safer look at harsh times that can be felt by most viewers of all walks of life. Having said this, the BAFTAs could easily make Belfast the film to beat if they sway enough award wins in its favour (we’ve seen this type of power shift happen time and time again: see The King’s Speech and Olivia Coleman trumping Glenn Close for Best Actress, although I’m perfectly fine with Coleman winning anything always).
Even though the Film Independent Spirit Awards didn’t show as much love to CODA as one would have assumed, this crowd-pleaser seems to be kicking butt nonetheless, and its awards season push hasn’t died down at all. If anything, it just seems to be getting stronger, especially with its SAG and BAFTA love (particularly for the strong cast). CODA feels like the Sound of Metal of the year: the indie film that could find its way to the big ceremony.
I was hesitant to think that Don’t Look Up would continue to do well because of its critical divide, but there’s something that has kept its Oscars hopes alive. Maybe it’s the industry love of Adam McKay, the massive cast of familiar faces, or the left leaning politics; something is resonating greatly with all of these awards shows. Considering it was nominated for Best Picture at the BAFTAs — a ceremony which usually favours British works over extremely American productions (like this) and has even fewer spaces for nominees (at five) — I think it’s basically safe to call Don’t Look Up a lock for a Best Picture nom now.
Every year, there is a film that gets so many technical and/or production nominations that it is basically guaranteed to be a Best Picture nominee. That film is Dune this year, especially because its effects and scale are this bonkers. People are still discussing the film, and it actually has been a part of some of the major categories of this year’s awards ceremonies (even beyond just the tech categories). While I don’t anticipate any actual award for this category, I think we can be certain that Dune is a Best Picture nominee at this point.
Similarly, there are oftentimes films that may be strong in one or two categories, and yet they end up becoming shoe-ins for Best Picture and other major awards somehow (some examples include Darkest Hour and The Post). This year’s likely edition of this Oscars trope is King Richard, which was already getting a lot of buzz for Will Smith’s performance. It seems like the promotional push for the film has been really good, because a ton of other aspects are being recognized, ranging from direction and writing to minor performances and even editing. Don’t be surprised if King Richard winds up here.
For months, I have been saying that Licorice Pizza is Paul Thomas Anderson’s most-Oscars-feeling-film to date. While its awards season strength has wavered a little bit, I still think the film is a high priority for Academy voters, especially to secure it in place for Best Picture. It’s PTA’s least challenging work in years, it has garnered a lot of acclaim for its acting, screenplay, and photography, and its buzz hasn’t died down yet. Licorice Pizza will almost certainly be here.
The one film I’m taking a big gamble with is Nightmare Alley. In all honesty, there’s a big chance that Guillermo del Toro’s latest won’t be here, but let me explain why I think it will squeak in as the last candidate. With the ways that Academy voters go about their business, you’ll often find the last remaining spots reserved for industry favourites, or those who have curried favour with the Academy (how the hell else could Stephen Daldry’s Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close have made it ten years ago?). Nightmare Alley will likely be recognized for its costumes as well, and I wouldn’t be surprised if it got some love in other style based categories. I don’t predict much success for Nightmare Alley, but I feel like it may be the last entrant for Best Picture.
The film that I currently predict will win the whole thing is Jane Campion’s The Power of the Dog, and it’s easy to see why. The film has had an extremely strong awards season; currently, it’s the winningest film of the year. It won the Golden Globe in the Drama category, and it is back at it with a BAFTA nom. Campion herself is nearly guaranteed a Best Director win, which usually helps the odds of a film winning Best Picture. Typically at least two other major awards secure a Best Picture win, so let’s bring up Kodi Smit-McPhee cleaning up all of the Best Supporting Actor categories, and then highlight how it has a slight chance to win for its cinematography, writing, and other dark horse categories (shoutouts to Benedict Cumberbatch and Kirsten Dunst). Yep. The only thing standing in the film’s way is that it is a Netflix flick, which usually didn’t fare well with the Academy (see Roma), but if the film with the next highest odds is an Amazon release (Belfast), then I wouldn’t be too concerned this year. If I’m feeling very confident about its chances of winning Best Picture, The Power of the Dog will be nominated.
It pains me to say that my favourite film of last year, The Tragedy of Macbeth, actually doesn’t have high odds of being nominated for Best Picture. Having said that, let me state why I have placed it here. Firstly, the Academy Awards adore the Coen brothers, and I’m sure they’d provide some kudos to one of the siblings. Secondly, they also love Frances McDormand and Denzel Washington. Thirdly, the film can rank up a number of art based awards (and even maybe an editing nom). In all reality, the film may garner a couple of nominations and that’s it (I know, I’m devastated as well). With there being ten open spots (and a guaranteed ten this year), I feel like The Tragedy of Macbeth stands a chance, at least.
Finally, we land on one of the more obvious selections with Stephen Spielberg’s West Side Story (see Cameron Geiser’s review here). The film is most certainly planting itself in art, tech, and performance categories, and that alone secures it as a Best Picture nominee. Then, the Academy loves Spielberg. Finally, the film is actually really good, and it’s the kind of work that many audiences can agree on (hell, some people prefer the film to the ‘61 version, and that actually won Best Picture). If anything, I’ll make a very bold take right now (and I’ll squander it by phrasing it very protectively): if The Power of the Dog and Belfast split votes between the Academy members that favour art and sentimentality, there’s actually a chance that West Side Story could go down as the only work to have two variations win Best Picture. That’s a very low possibility at the moment, but I honestly wouldn’t shrug it off (especially since West Side Story won the Golden Globe for the Comedy category and a ton of others, in a year where that may actually matter towards Oscar gold).
Other possible Best Picture nominees:
Drive My Car (if the Academy decides to be interesting enough to go for an international film this year)
The Lost Daughter (if the Academy wishes to rectify the BAFTA’s lapses)
House of Gucci (I certainly hope not, but you never know)
Being the Ricardos (the Academy does love Aaron Sorkin, let’s be honest)
Andreas Babiolakis has a Masters degree in Film and Photography Preservation and Collections Management from Ryerson University, as well as a Bachelors degree in Cinema Studies from York University. His favourite times of year are the Criterion Collection flash sales and the annual Toronto International Film Festival.