96th Academy Awards Nomination Predictions
Written by Andreas Babiolakis
The nominations for the 96th Academy Awards are happening in less than 48 hours! This Tuesday, January 23rd at 8:00 AM ET, the moment many of us have been waiting for will finally arrive: the official start to Oscars season. We’ve seen the Golden Globes come and go, been graced with a plethora of other awards ceremonies and their nominations, and we’ve seen buzz attached to certain films stay strong or die down. It’s time to make some final predictions as to how these nominations are going to go.
If you are new to Films Fatale, I go about ranking every category, make predictions as to which nominee will win, and all sorts of other Academy Awards-related content leading up to the big day of the ceremony (March 10th, this year). Before we do all that, I’m going to plug away my final nominations predictions (plus I’ll toss in around two dark horse predictions for each category, since I know the Academy Awards love their surprises). I’ll go in-depth regarding the Best Picture nominees and why I think they will take the top spot, but the rest of the nominations will just simply be predictions and nothing more. Let’s not waste any more time. Let’s kick off the Oscars season in style!
Note: None of these predictions are based on my personal opinion of what films are good or are the best fits in each category. These are what I feel may/will be nominated based on the flow of the award season thus far, as well as my attempt to catch any curveball surprises before they happen. Many films I love aren’t even represented here in most categories because I sadly don’t think they stand a chance, given the usual game of the Academy Awards. Furthermore, my predictions as to which films will win which categories may easily change over the course of the weeks leading up to the actual Academy Awards ceremony. Stay tuned for my daily ranking and predictions for each category. A lot can change during the Oscars race!
Best Picture
Winner of the Toronto International Film Festival’s People’s Choice Award, American Fiction is set to follow in the annual tradition where most of the winners of the past fifteen years have been at least nominated for Best Picture at the Oscars (or, in some cases, these go on to actually win Best Picture). American Fiction may pick up a handful of nominations otherwise for its acting and its screenplay, but I don’t think this will be a juggernaut in any way (it may not even wind up winning any awards despite its Best Picture status).
Justine Triet’s Palme d’Or winning feature Anatomy of a Fall has made a splash so far, even picking up two Golden Globe wins (one for its screenplay, which was a major surprise given the upset, despite how worthy this film is of this and many other awards). With its climb in popularity, I don’t think Anatomy of a Fall is going to slow down any time soon. It may even pick up a win somewhere along the line (I’m presently thinking it will nab that Best Original Screenplay win).
Ah, yes. One of the most popular films of last year. Barbie is a good kind of crowd-pleasing comedy that is still well-made in many respects (its production, costumes, et cetera). It has the acting star power to boot, and all of the fun trinkets that can be honoured as well (I don’t suspect that Barbie will get many wins outside of a nearly-guaranteed lock for Best Original Song). It’ll likely tally numerous nominations across the board, thus earning it its Best Picture slot, but I also don’t think Barbie will be sweeping its categories.
The Holdovers has proven to be a fan favourite of the year, the Christmas season, and of Alexander Payne’s career. It is locked for multiple acting nominations and for screenplay, but The Holdovers may have some surprise nominations for its editing, cinematography, and even Best Director. Due to this stature that won’t be wavering any time soon, I think The Holdovers is a safe bet for Best Picture.
Even though I initially thought that Killers of the Flower Moon was going to have a bit of a better awards season than it has had, it seems to be The Irishman all over again for Martin Scorsese, right down to the Best Picture nomination; it only makes sense given how many production nominations this will likely get, alongside its acting and writing accolades. Unlike The Irishman, I think Killers of the Flower Moon will pick up at least one win somewhere, be it for Best Actress or Best Production Design.
Maestro will be the weakest of the Best Picture nominees, should I be accurate in my predictions, but that means it’s quite a solid year (usually, a film like Maestro would be one of the better Best Picture nominations in a lacklustre batch). I feel like this film will pick up a nomination for its cinematography and sound, as well as an acting nod or two. Depending on how much the Academy got swept away by this film, it may get some top category acknowledgement for its screenplay and even for Best Director. I’m not sure if I feel like it’s fully deserving of all of these potential nominations, but I feel like we can see them coming a mile away.
Well, duh. Not only will Oppenheimer be nominated for Best Picture and a whole slew of other categories (from all things tech and production to acting, writing, and director), but this is currently the film to beat. I’m fully expecting even close to ten nominations (if not, at least between seven to ten). This is a titan of a film this awards season, and I don’t think there is much competition whatsoever. If Oppenheimer got snubbed for Best Picture, it would go down as one of the biggest upsets in recent memory. As we all know, however, that won’t happen.
***(my pick to win right now)
Some years, we’ll find the little film that could: a motion picture that wills its way all the way to the finish line. Past Lives is a humble indie film from early-enough 2023 that never let up its popularity or acclaim. I feel like it will get the Best Picture nod that it was destined to pull off, as well as a scattering of nominations across the board (perhaps for acting, writing, editing, and director, but where exactly it’ll wind up isn’t quite clear). I’d expect up to four nominations for this film.
By some miracle, Yorgos Lanthimos will find a film of his being nominated for Best Picture a second time (even The Favourite felt like the Academy was stepping outside of its comfort zone a teensy bit). Poor Things is insane, but it has won most viewers over, including Academy members. It will accumulate nominations for its design and production, its score, writing, and even some acting nods. Lanthimos may even get recognized for his directing. Poor Things may not go home with many awards, but it will be recognized quite prominently across the board.
Finally, there’s the one that snuck in right before the door of opportunity closed. The Zone of Interest will likely be the Best International Feature Film nominee that works its way into the Best Picture conversation; we’ve seen one almost every year since 2018’s Roma. This film could go either way, with just a couple of nominations alongside its Best Picture nod, or it could surprise us with some love in numerous categories (even an appearance in Best Director, which I would love). As it stands, I sadly don’t think this film will win much outside of Best International Feature Film (mainly because it doesn’t have to compete with Anatomy of a Fall once France selected The Taste of Things to represent the country instead), but I would love for it to win everything.
Potential Dark Horses
• Saltburn — If the Academy somehow sneaks in a film that’ll only get nominated for one or two other awards (people really seem to love Saltburn). This can and does happen (see The Post and Women Talking).
• The Color Purple — If the Academy wants to play it safe with a musical/lavishly-produced film that may pick up a few nominations elsewhere (although, to be fair, The Color Purple presently have low odds on pulling it off)
• May December — Should the Academy somehow go against the grain and ignore all of the downward spiralling of the film’s campaign (but I highly doubt it)
• Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse — Hey, they’re likely nominating it for at least two or three awards. Why not actually give an animated film its flowers for once? Although I’d rather all of this love went to The Boy and the Heron instead.
• Origin — This has Selma written all over it, and I don’t mean just because they’re both by Ava DuVernay. I’m not expecting this nomination, but don’t be surprised if it actually winds up happening.
Best Director
• Jonathan Glazer-The Zone of Interest
• Yorgos Lanthimos-Poor Things
• Christopher Nolan-Oppenheimer ***(my pick to win right now)
• Alexander Payne-The Holdovers
• Martin Scorsese-Killers of the Flower Moon
Dark Horses
• Greta Gerwig-Barbie
• Justine Triet-Anatomy of a Fall
• Celine Song-Past Lives
Best Actress in a Leading Role
• Lily Gladstone-Killers of the Flower Moon
• Sandra Hüller-Anatomy of a Fall
• Greta Lee-Past Lives
• Margot Robbie-Barbie
• Emma Stone-Poor Things***(my pick to win right now)
Dark Horses
• Carey Mulligan-Maestro
• Annette Bening-Nyad
Best Actor in a Leading Role
• Bradley Cooper-Maestro
• Colman Domingo-Rustin
• Paul Giamatti-The Holdovers***(my pick to win right now)
• Cillian Murphy-Oppenheimer
• Jeffrey Wright-American Fiction
Dark Horses
• Leonardo DiCaprio-Killers of the Flower Moon
• Barry Keoghan-Saltburn
• Andrew Scott-All of Us Strangers
Best Actress in a Supporting Role
• Emily Blunt-Oppenheimer
• Danielle Brooks-The Color Purple
• Penélope Cruz-Ferrari
• Jodie Foster-Nyad
• Da’Vine Joy Randolph-The Holdovers***(my pick to win right now)
Dark Horses
• Julianne Moore-May December
• Sandra Hüller-The Zone of Interest
• America Ferrera-Barbie
Best Actor in a Supporting Role
• Sterling K. Brown-American Fiction
• Robert De Niro-Killers of the Flower Moon
• Robert Downey Jr.-Oppenheimer***(my pick to win right now)
• Ryan Gosling-Barbie
• Mark Ruffalo-Poor Things
Dark Horses
• Dominic Sessa-The Holdovers
• Charles Melton-May December
• Willem Dafoe-Poor Things
Best Original Screenplay
• Air
• Anatomy of a Fall***(my pick to win right now)
• The Holdovers
• May December
• Past Lives
Dark Horses
• Maestro
• Saltburn
• The Iron Claw
Best Adapted Screenplay
• American Fiction
• Killers of the Flower Moon
• Oppenheimer***(my pick to win right now)
• Poor Things
• The Zone of Interest
Dark Horses
• Barbie
• Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret
• Origin
Best International Feature Film
• Fallen Leaves
• Perfect Days
• Society of the Snow
• The Teacher’s Lounge
• The Zone of Interest ***(my pick to win right now)
Dark Horses
• 20 Days in Mariupol
• The Taste of Things
• The Monk and the Gun
Best Documentary Feature Film
• 20 Days in Mariupol
• American Symphony***(my pick to win right now)
• Beyond Utopia
• The Eternal Memory
• Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie
Dark Horses
• Four Daughters
• Bobi Wine: The People’s President
• To Kill a Tiger
Best Animated Feature Film
• The Boy and the Heron
• Elemental
• Nimona
• Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse***(my pick to win right now)
• Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem
Dark Horses
• Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget
• Suzume
Best Live Action Short Film
• The After***(my pick to win right now)
• The Anne Frank Gift Shop
• An Avocado Pit
• Invincible
• The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar
Dark Horses
• Strange Way of Life
• Yellow
• The Shepherd
Best Documentary Short Film
• The ABCs of Book Banning
• Camp Courage
• Deciding Vote
• The Last Repair Shop***(my pick to win right now)
• Last Song from Kabul
Dark Horses
• Nai Nai and Wai Po
• Black Girls Play: The Story of Hand Games
• Wings of Dust
Best Animated Short Film
• Humo (Smoke)
• Letter to a Pig***(my pick to win right now)
• Ninety-Five Senses
• Once upon a Studio
• WAR IS OVER! Inspired by the Music of John and Yoko
Dark Horses
• A Kind of Testament
• Boom
• Pete
Best Original Score
• Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
• Killers of the Flower Moon
• Oppenheimer***(my pick to win right now)
• Poor Things
• Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Dark Horses
• The Zone of Interest
• Society of the Snow
• The Boy and the Heron
Best Original Song
• “The Fire Inside”-Flamin’ Hot
• “I’m Just Ken”-Barbie
• “Keep it Movin’”-The Color Purple
• “Road to Freedom”-Rustin
• “What Was I Made For?”-Barbie***(my pick to win right now)
Dark Horses
• “It Never Went Away”-American Symphony
• “Dance the Night”-Barbie
Best Sound
• Ferrari
• Maestro
• Napoleon
• Oppenheimer***(my pick to win right now)
• The Zone of Interest
Dark Horses
• Killers of the Flower Moon
• The Killer
• Mission Impossible —Dead Reckoning Part One
Best Cinematography
• Killers of the Flower Moon
• Maestro
• Oppenheimer***(my pick to win right now)
• Poor Things
• Saltburn
Dark Horses
• The Zone of Interest
• Barbie
• May December
Best Film Editing
• Barbie
• The Holdovers
• Killers of the Flower Moon
• Maestro
• Oppenheimer***(my pick to win right now)
Dark Horses
• Poor Things
• Ferrari
• The Zone of Interest
Best Visual Effects
• The Creator
• Godzilla Minus One
• Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 3***(my pick to win right now)
• Mission Impossible — Dead Reckoning Part One
• Poor Things
Dark Horses
• Society of the Snow
• Napoleon
Best Costume Design
• Barbie
• The Color Purple
• Killers of the Flower Moon***(my pick to win right now)
• Poor Things
• Wonka
Dark Horses
• Napoleon
• Priscilla
Best Production Design
• Asteroid City
• Barbie***(my pick to win right now)
• Killers of the Flower Moon
• Oppenheimer
• The Zone of Interest
Dark Horses
• Poor Things
• Napoleon
• Saltburn
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
• Golda
• The Last Voyage of the Demeter
• Maestro***(my pick to win right now)
• Poor Things
• Society of the Snow
Dark Horses
• Oppenheimer
• Beau is Afraid
• Killers of the Flower Moon
Andreas Babiolakis has a Masters degree in Film and Photography Preservation and Collections Management from Ryerson University, as well as a Bachelors degree in Cinema Studies from York University. His favourite times of year are the Criterion Collection flash sales and the annual Toronto International Film Festival.