97th Academy Awards Best Picture Predictions
Written by Andreas Babiolakis
Tomorrow, we finally get the unveiled nominations for the 97th Academy Awards. Both the voting deadline and the nominations announcement were pushed due to the South Californian wildfires and their devastating wreckage, so there have been some shifts in the awards season race (a multi-month, shockingly meticulous-yet-unsurprising stretch of time where potential winners and nominees change seats frequently, outside of a couple of permanent locks like, say, Kieran Culkin winning for Best Supporting Actor for A Real Pain). With all of that in mind, I — and many other Oscars prognosticators — feel like the majority of the potential Best Picture nominees have been set in stone for months now.
This isn’t the kind of year where a huge batch of films could cause upsets in this category; really, you’re looking at seven or eight guaranteed locks, and a group of films that could take the ninth and tenth spot (but, really, even these feel fairly obvious). I’ll go ahead and do my annual tradition of predicting the ten Best Picture nominees to be revealed tomorrow with a miniature list of other potential nominees, whilst explaining why I think these films will be nominated for the top prize at the 97th Academy Awards. All in all, I’d consider the following ten films a fairly decent-to-strong batch of Best Picture candidates, so this is a pretty good year overall, I’d argue.
The films are presented in alphabetical order.
If my prediction is correct, then A Complete Unknown will easily be the weakest of the ten Best Picture nominated films. Having said that, it’s still quite good and it’s easy to see where its voting numbers will come from, including the seemingly-numerous acting nominations it will accrue, and a series of other categories it will likely make a splash in (like Best Sound, Best Film Editing, and the like). A Complete Unknown won’t dominate the whole ceremony, but it’s clear that James Mangold’s latest feature film has wowed enough people over to make itself known in the Oscars race.
One of the best films of last year, Anora may have lost a bit of Awards Season steam (remember, this was the film to beat at one point, perhaps thanks to its Palme d’Or win), but I’d consider it still a heavy presence surrounding this year’s Oscars. There are obvious nominations the film will get, like Best Director Sean Baker and Best Actress for Mikey Madison, and I’m sure Anora will rack up a couple of other nods in categories like Best Original Screenplay, Best Film Editing, and more. I wouldn’t even state that it’s too late for Anora to even win Best Picture; while the odds are in favour of the next film on this list, Anora has the potential power to overtake the race and win it all.
We now come to the film that is currently slated to win it all: Brady Corbet’s masterpiece, The Brutalist. Presently guaranteed to win Best Director and most likely a shoe-in for Best Actor (for Adrian Brody), The Brutalist is going to pick up at least ten nominations altogether. I sense multiple other acting nominations for Felicity Jones and Guy Pearce, a Best Original Screenplay nod, a slew of production-based selections (Best Production Design, Best Costume Design) and other shout-outs (Best Original Score, Best Cinematography), et cetera. Just from the presence of the film in many categories alone, I’d argue that The Brutalist would wind up in the Best Picture race alone; it’s likely going to win the top prize at this point (yes, even with the unfortunate revelation of the use of AI to smooth out various elements of the film; yes, I still consider The Brutalist one of the best films in recent years even with this disappointing news).
There’s always going to be one film that I feel is somewhat overrated in this category, and this year’s choice on my end is Edward Berger’s really-good-but-not-masterful Conclave. While many of its potential nominations are deserved — like Best Actor for Ralph Fiennes, Best Adapted Screenplay (which it’s destined to win at this point), and Best Cinematography — Conclave is the kind of film that has won enough people over (I admit that I’m in the minority that doesn’t love this film quite as much as the average film-goer) that it will make a presence at tomorrow’s announcement. If anything, there is likely a group of people that want Conclave to win it all (I wouldn’t count this film out entirely; there is a slight chance that Conclave could be a Best Picture winner); it’ll be the same group of voters who nearly made Berger’s All Quiet on the Western Front the biggest winner of its year.
Dune: Part Two is not going to win Best Picture, much to the chagrin of the millions of superfans this film has. However, I still feel like Dune: Part Two will worm (pun intended) its way into this category simply from the magnitude of the tech and production categories it will likely dominate just like the previous Dune did, from Best Visual Effects, Best Costume Design, and Best Makeup and Hairstyling, to Best Cinematography, Best Film Editing, and Best Sound. I doubt it, but there could be a slim chance that Denis Villeneuve pops up as a Best Director nominee (again, I don’t think it will happen, but likely the final part of this trilogy will see the Quebec legend being honoured in this way).
I have seen the waves of vitriol that Emelia Pérez has been experiencing online, but I still think this Jacques Audiard musical will be nominated for Best Picture. First, it won Best Picture: Comedy or Musical at this year’s Golden Globes. Secondly, since Roma, there has been at least one Best International Feature Film representative in the Best Picture race (and it’s usually the film slated to win the aforementioned category); Emelia Pérez is currently the favourite to win that group (unless Walter Salles’ beloved drama, I’m Still Here, shakes things up). Thirdly, Emelia Pérez will definitely collect many nominations for its acting, its production, and anything sound and music based. It’s impossible to deny that this film will be a powerhouse with many nominations, including Best Picture.
Sadly the least likely film to be nominated for Best Picture is the actual best picture of 2024: Nickel Boys. Still, I have faith in this magnificent, miraculous film. I feel like it will at least make appearances in the categories Best Adapted Screenplay and Best Cinematography, but potentially nothing else. It should be considered for Best Director, numerous Best Acting categories, and then some. I do believe that the Academy appreciates RaMell Ross quite a bit, considering that his once overlooked documentary, Hale County This Morning, This Evening was nominated for Best Documentary Feature. I wouldn’t be surprised if Nickel Boys sadly gets omitted from this category (honestly, A Real Pain may wind up being here), especially since the film won’t be garnering a lot of nominations, but I’d like to think that it will make the final spot.
I love when unexpected films become obvious predictions. If you told me that Coralie Fargeat’s The Substance was guaranteed to be nominated for Best Picture when I first saw it, I’d tell you that you were crazy. However, here’s where we are at with this amazing horror-satire. The film is likely getting a Best Actress nomination for Demi Moore, a Best Makeup and Hairstyling win, and a selection of other potential nominations (Fargeat herself for Best Director, Best Original Screenplay, Best Film Editing, and more). Now, I think it’d be stupid not to consider The Substance for Best Picture, which is a treat considering how daring this film is (and also how the Oscars usually malign horror films).
The thing with having ten Best Picture nominations means that there are a couple of leftover slots that account for films with more humble promotional approaches. This year is the little film that could, Sing Sing. I wouldn’t consider this film a guarantee for the Best Picture slot, especially since much has changed these past few months and the momentum for this film appears to have slowed down immensely (sadly), but I wouldn’t count Sing Sing out. With subsequent AMPAS screenings months after it was released to watch at home, some awards season buzz for acting (especially star Colman Domingo), and potential appearances in one or two other categories (Clarence Maclin may — and should — show up in the Best Supporting Actor category, and Sing Sing may show up in the Best Adapted Screenplay category as well). Don’t expect much otherwise given how quiet the noise surrounding Sing Sing has become, but it may be one of the final Best Picture names being mentioned just because of the passion those who love the film possess.
Duh. Wicked won’t win too much given the stiff competition it has, but the film is still going to make noise in at least seven or eight categories for its acting, its music, its production, and more. I know the film is insanely popular which will have it being supported in many categories. I just think that it is going up against many guaranteed winners or tougher films. Having said all of that, Wicked will most likely be nominated for Best Picture because of the collective appreciation for it across the board.
Other possible Best Picture nominees:
A Real Pain (Likely the one film that winds up in the tenth spot just for its writing and acting alone)
I’m Still Here (For the massive fan base this rightfully beloved film has garnered, and the train being Fernanda Torres’ immense awards season campaign)
All We Imagine as Light (In case there’s a dark horse pick for a once-potential-winner of Best Internation Feature Film that was forbidden from even being in the category it was meant to dominate)
Challengers (Even though this film has lost almost all of its momentum, you never know)
Nosferatu (Which has been insanely popular and may wind up in numerous categories, but the Oscars do hate horror and Robert Eggers, so…)
September 5 (This was once predicted to dominate everything and it has almost zero chance of being nominated for anything, but, again, you never know… Besides, it’s actually quite good, surprisingly)
Andreas Babiolakis has a Masters degree in Film and Photography Preservation and Collections Management from Ryerson University, as well as a Bachelors degree in Cinema Studies from York University. His favourite times of year are the Criterion Collection flash sales and the annual Toronto International Film Festival.