Our Golden Globes Predictions
Tonight starts the 2020 portion of the 2019 awards season: the actual major awards. Now, the Golden Globes are known for being the lightest of said awards, because of their drunk factor, the celebs there to just have a blast, and the questionable nominations that happen at least once a year (The Lion King for Best Animated Feature? Really?). You’ll find funnier and sloppier speeches, less prestige, and more fun. Yet, the Golden Globes still begins the major season circuit (followed by the SAG awards, BAFTAs, then the Academy Awards), and can even influence the rest of the season to some degree. Sometimes, Globe wins are meaningless. Sometimes, they’re just enough to start Oscar upsets, or divergent paths in the race. So, despite what we just said earlier, we’re going to do some quick predictions. We’re focusing on film categories only (we aren’t all that educated on the television front).
Let us also mention that these aren’t the nominees we want to win, but our predictions as to who will win. We will go through all of our favourites once the Academy Award nominations come out.
Best Foreign Language Film: Parasite
This is this year’s Roma and Amour: the international film that broke out of its singular category. The fact that Parasite is being nominated for many different categories (and has a legitimately decent shot of winning the major Best Picture awards) means it’s likely a clear victory here. Unless the Hollywood Foreign Press Association wants to use this opportunity to elect an underdog, like Pain and Glory, or the Academy-snubbed Portrait of a Lady on Fire (as “France” chose Les Misérables as their nominee instead). The Farewell is a peculiar nom here, considering it’s an American made film that happens to take place in China and feature Mandarin. Ah well. This one’s likely Parasite either way.
”The Farewell”
”Les Misérables”
”Pain and Glory” May Win Instead
”Parasite” Predicted Winner
”Portrait of a Lady on Fire”
Best Animated Feature: Toy Story 4
Unless the HFPA wants to finally give the How to Train Your Dragon series a fair shake (it never really got one), this is most probably going to Toy Story 4 (wow, what a surprise). Frozen 2 is not strong enough to warrant the win (but it’s the GGs… you never know), and Missing Link seems like a noble mention, given the animation efforts and the legacy of Laika. In short, anything but The Lion King. I know it counts as an animated film, since it is mostly CGI, but it is meant to be seen as “live action”. Either way, it’s a terrible film that looks like zombified taxidermy singing show tunes. Anything but this. Please. I’m begging you, HFPA. Please. I’ll forgive you for nominating The Tourist at all, never mind as a comedy.
”Frozen 2”
”The Lion King”
”Missing Link”
”Toy Story 4” Predicted Winner
”How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World” May Win Instead
Best Original Song: “Into the Unknown”, Frozen 2
“Into the Unknown” has been cleaning up left right and centre. It’s what Disney knows how to do (amongst a thousand other things). With all of the Rocketman nominations, maybe “I’m Gonna Love Me Again” can have a chance. There’s also “Spirit”, and you never want to bet against Beyoncé with the utmost confidence. “Beautiful Ghosts” likely doesn’t have a chance, given the horrid reputation Cats has received, and “Stand Up” likely won’t do too well, seeing as Harriet has been pushed as a Best Actress hopeful since the film was released. We’re saying “Into the Unknown” is quite the opposite. It’s well known that it will have a great chance of winning.
”Beautiful Ghosts-Cats”
”I’m Gonna Love Me Again-Rocketman”
”Into the Unknown-Frozen 2” Predicted Winner
”Spirit-The Lion King” May Win Instead
”Stand Up-Harriet”
Best Original Score: 1917
Okay, we honestly don’t have a great insight with this category. It’s very, very tough. The score in Motherless Brooklyn was easily the best part of the film, and it has been relentlessly pushed by advertising. Alexandre Desplat is always a promising candidate, and his Little Women score really is fantastic. We have the two legendary Newman cousins as well. Randy has received a lot of attention for Marriage Story, but this is likely Thomas’ year for his accompanying music to the “single shot” film 1917 (plus, he and Sam Mendes are basically telepathic at this point, with their work together). However, don’t be so surprised if Hildur Guðnadóttir runs away with this award. Joker was a hit-or-miss film, but her score is absolutely sensational, and impactful enough to make a statement. We’re going 1917, but we could be so very wrong. We’re fine with any of these scores winning.
”Motherless Brooklyn”
”Little Women” May Win Instead
”Joker” May Win Instead
”1917” Predicted Winner
”Marriage Story”
Best Screenplay: Marriage Story
Yeah, we also hate that the HFPA doesn’t split up the adapted and original screenplays, but here we are. The Two Popes is good, but definitely the weakest of the pack here (only because 2019 has had some brilliant displays of writing). The other four nominees are basically like trying to pick out a hard boiled egg amongst raw eggs just by feel. There’s really no way to decide. Is the HFPA going to go the literal route, and pick the adapted screenplay for The Irishman (which is currently the frontrunner for Adapted Screenplay awards everywhere; we’re hoping for a Greta Gerwig push soon, though)? They may have to pick between the original screenplays instead. We think Parasite has the lowest chance of this batch, because its nomination is likely out of respect (foreign films usually don’t do well here, unless they’re the clear favourite). Once Upon a Time in Hollywood has a major chance, but we feel the Golden Globes will award Marriage Story here, as to give it some sort of trophy (it may not do well in the other categories). Your guess is as good as ours here.
”Marriage Story” Predicted Winner
”Parasite”
”The Two Popes”
”Once Upon a Time in Hollywood” May Win Instead
”The Irishman” May Win Instead
Best Supporting Actress in a Motion Picture: Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers
In actuality, Laura Dern has been a major frontrunner for her work in Marriage Story across the board. However, Jennifer Lopez really hasn’t been that far behind. Seeing as these are the Golden Globes, the HFPA may use this opportunity to gift a highly recognizable entertainer their deserved dues. Let’s also be honest here. Most of us probably never expected Lopez to be in this kind of a position, whereas Dern can almost always hold her own in many works (and will probably be back in the awards season again and again). Does the HFPA give an esteemed actress her award, or do they go with the biggest surprise that may never be back here again? Also, the Golden Globes are more viewer friendly, and they have that multiple-industry shtick going on (“musical” films as a means of bringing music based films, and “Best Original Song” as a way of sneaking on popular artists, even for terrible songs). We’re saying Jenny from the Block, but Laura Dern is basically neck-and-neck here. However, Margot Robbie’s recent uprise for Bombshell could also swoop in, but her role is much shorter than Dern’s and Lopez’s, which may factor in a loss. Annette Benning and Kathy Bates are great, and are simply being acknowledged here. What else is new?
”Annette Benning: The Report”
”Margot Robbie: Bombshell” May Win Instead
”Jennifer Lopez: Hustlers” Predicted Winner
”Kathy Bates: Richard Jewell”
”Laura Dern: Marriage Story” May Win Instead
Best Supporting Actor in a Motion Picture: Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
This feels like a much easier category. Brad Pitt has been absolutely killing the Best Supporting Actor category. Maybe he just works very well with a Quentin Tarantino screenplay. Maybe awards shows are figuring this is finally the right time to award Brad Pitt with an acting trophy. He can match his competition (and isn’t up against heavyweights). He does a great job in Hollywood. He’s been in the game for long enough. It’s simply time. We can’t brush past the two Irishman blessings we got, including a vicious return by retired actor Joe Pesci, and a return-to-form by Al Pacino (who is our prediction of the dark horse here). Tom Hanks is lovely as Fred Rogers, but he’s been awarded often, and the HFPA may want to use this opportunity to select someone else. There’s also Anthony Hopkins as Pope Benedict, who can’t be slept on entirely either. All great roles. We’re still saying Pitt.
”Tom Hanks: A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood”
”Al Pacino: The Irishman” May Win Instead
”Joe Pesci: The Irishman”
”Brad Pitt: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood” Predicted Winner
”Anthony Hopkins: The Two Popes”
Best Actress - Musical or Comedy: Awkwafina, The Farewell
We may be a bit bold in saying this, but this may be a no-contest type of situation. In the grand scheme of things, Awkwafina is the only nominee in this batch that has been highly considered for general Best Actress categories. We love Cate Blanchett, but her nomination here is simply to fill up the roster. Beanie Feldstein and Emma Thompson are both great in their respective films, but Booksmart hasn’t had much of an awards race impact, and Late Night wasn’t well received enough to make a stink (Thompson is likely a roster-filler as well). Ana de Armas is at least considered a leading role for Knives Out, which we like. She’s also a good newcomer. However, Awkwafina has basically had awards season staying power since The Farewell even came out. Unlike some of the other categories, we can’t even pick a runner up easily, but we will try. If this isn’t Awkwafina’s award, then consider us silly.
”Awkwafina: The Farewell” Predicted Winner
”Ana de Armas: Knives Out”
Beanie Feldstein: Booksmart”
”Emma Thompson: Late Night” May Win Instead
”Cate Blanchett: Where’d You Go Bernadette”
Best Actor - Musical or Comedy: Leonardo DiCaprio: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
We’re feeling a little less certain here. We can write off Roman Griffin Davis and Daniel Craig, who both deliver solid performances but are here because of the nature of their respective films. Will the HFPA go with Eddie Murphy, who has experienced a career revival with his best performance to date? Will they go with Taron Egerton, whose whimsical take on Elton John has had a much stronger awards season presence than we may have predicted? Will they go the more obvious route, and select Leonardo DiCaprio, especially given the possibility of Hollywood winning the overall Best Picture award for this category? We’re not entirely sure… We’re only saying Leo, because of Hollywood’s higher award season push, but this can easily go to Murphy or Egerton.
”Daniel Craig: Knives Out”
”Roman Griffin Davis: Jojo Rabbit”
”Leonardo DiCaprio: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood” Predicted Winner
”Taron Egerton: Rocketman” May Win Instead
”Eddie Murphy: Dolemite is my Name” May Win Instead
Best Actress - Drama: Renée Zellweger, Judy
Now, our selection may give off the impression that Renée Zellweger has continued to be the obvious Best Actress winner of 2019. However, that is not the case. Things have changed. Charlize Theron has zoomed into the competition furiously, and has a mightily high chance of winning for Bombshell. Saorise Ronan is a bit late to the party, but that makes her Little Women turn all the more immediately noticeable. Scarlett Johansson has made enough noise with Marriage Story to warrant her being here (after how many great performances and very little recognition?). Cynthia Erivo has lasted this long with her take on Harriet Tubman. You can see why this is a highly tricky category. We’re only going with Zellweger, because of Judy’s crowd pleasing nature (very Golden Globes-like), and how this performance marks her comeback with a vengeance. It could easily be Theron’s to win. Hell, it can be anybody’s.
”Cynthia Erivo: Harriet”
”Scarlett Johansson: Marriage Story”
”Saoirse Ronan: Little Women”
”Charlize Theron: Bombshell” May Win Instead
”Renée Zellweger: Judy” Predicted Winner
Best Actor - Drama: Joaquin Phoenix, Joker
Joaquin Phoenix is known for being the guy that has lost possible wins due to his unwillingness to play by the awards season rules. Well, Todd Phillips and company absolutely played ball with Joker, so it may not even be up to Phoenix with this year. The only tight competition Phoenix has is with Adam Driver, who has received the best reviews of his young career. Antonio Banderas is a pleasant surprise to see here, to say the least. Christian Bale and Jonathan Pryce are also worthy mentions, but their chances are much slimmer, maybe. Given Joker’s controversial relevancy, Phoenix’s legacy, and just how damn good he actually is in the film, we’re still going Joker here.
”Christian Bale: Ford v. Ferrari”
”Antonio Banderas: Pain and Glory”
”Adam Driver: Marriage Story” May Win Instead
”Joaquin Phoenix: Joker” Predicted Winner
”Jonathan Pryce: The Two Popes”
Best Director: Martin Scorsese, The Irishman
Despite a glaring omission of Greta Gerwig here, this is a overwhelming list of candidates. We’re saying Martin Scorsese, given the Golden Globe’s history of being super safe. This would eliminate Bong Joon-ho from winning, sadly (we love that he’s here), and that may give Todd Phillips the boot too (unless, this is surprisingly Joker’s year to claim everything. You never know, given last year’s peculiar winners"). So, this is truly between Sam Mendes, Quentin Tarantino, and Scorsese. This category can actually be a major decision factor for the rest of the awards season. If Tarantino wins, that means Hollywood has a big chance of breaking out of the “Comedy” genre here, and can become the Best Picture frontrunner to beat. If Scorsese wins, that means The Irishman can continue its successful run, and may secure a second successful Oscars for Scorsese. If Mendes wins, The Irishman will be replaced by 1917, and suddenly that film may have its own awards season race. Now, let’s consider the two dark horses. Joon-ho wins: Parasite can potentially follow in Roma’s footsteps (and may even pull off the international Best Picture win and create history). Phillips wins: well, Joker can become a major awards season threat. Also, there is a major chance that whoever wins here is winning either Best Picture category at the Globes. This is exciting, folks. This is the category that can change everything (even outside of tonight).
”Bong Joon-ho: Parasite”
”Sam Mendes: 1917” May Win Instead
”Quentin Tarantino: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood” May Win Instead
”Martin Scorsese: The Irishman” Predicted Winner
”Todd Phillips: Joker”
Best Motion Picture - Musical or Comedy: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Looking at the awards season race thus far (and the many websites that track the race), Once Upon a Time in Hollywood is beyond just a possible candidate. It’s currently one of the films to beat, and easily the highest film here. Knives Out doesn’t have enough strong nominations to pull this off. Jojo Rabbit will likely be a Best Picture nominee, but it also just isn’t strong enough here. Rocketman and Dolemite is my Name could pull off upsets here, but in the bigger picture, these two films just aren’t on Hollywood’s awards season level. Like Brad Pitt, I think a lot of ceremonies just want this to be Quentin Tarantino’s time. However, don’t count out Dolemite or Elton John entirely. You never know with the Golden Globes.
”Dolemite is my Name” May Win Instead
”Jojo Rabbit”
”Knives Out”
”Once Upon a Time in Hollywood” Predicted Winner
”Rocketman” May Win Instead
Best Motion Picture - Drama: The Irishman
Now this is a much tougher category. Outside of The Two Popes, this actually could be anybody’s. Suppose we were wrong about Dern not winning, or Phillips not winning, or Mendes not winning, and so on and so forth. Given our previous guesses, and the current state of the awards season, we’re saying The Irishman just because of how things are looking. It could be a means of sending Scorsese off with glory (The Irishman isn’t his last film, but it is his farewell to the gangster and crime genres he perfected). This could easily go to Marriage Story, 1917, or Joker. We have absolutely no idea. Whoever wins in this category has a major chance of shifting the entire awards season race, and it will likely go hand-in-hand with whoever wins Best Director (again, hence why we went with Scorsese).
”1917” May Win Instead
”The Irishman” Predicted Winner
”Joker” May Win Instead
”Marriage Story” May Win Instead
”The Two Popes”
Andreas Babiolakis has a Masters degree in Film and Photography Preservation and Collections Management from Ryerson University, as well as a Bachelors degree in Cinema Studies from York University. His favourite times of year are the Criterion Collection flash sales and the annual Toronto International Film Festival.