2021 Golden Globe Predictions
Written by Andreas Babiolakis
This Sunday, the 78th Golden Globe awards are going to finally arrive; usually by this time, the awards season is at least a week (or more) done, with the Academy Awards having come and gone. Basically, I’m going to make some predictions (like I always do) on who will come out as the big winners this evening. I won’t go over the television categories, since I don’t follow television as much, and can’t safely predict anything there. Having said that, I’m also feeling iffy about the film categories this year, because of the open-endedness of this awards season, so I’m not as certain (or sure) of my guesses, but it doesn’t hurt to try and give my reasons why. I also think the awards will be a little all over the map this year, without a clear winner that will sweep the categories. Here are my predictions as to who will win the film related categories at the Golden Globes.
BEST ORIGINAL SONG – MOTION PICTURE
I feel like One Night in Miami is facing a ton of competition in other categories, especially with rising frontrunners making their mark. So, “Best Original Song” might be their parting gift from the Golden Globes, while the other more prominent films here (Judas and the Black Messiah, The Trial of the Chicago 7) are featured and other works are given a chance. Given the standout musical moments in Miami, I’m going with this film.
"Fight for You" (D'Mile, H.E.R., & Tiara Thomas) – Judas and the Black Messiah
"Hear My Voice" (Celeste & Daniel Pemberton) – The Trial of the Chicago 7
"Io sì (Seen)" (Niccolò Agliardi, Laura Pausini, & Diane Warren) – The Life Ahead
"Speak Now" (Sam Ashworth & Leslie Odom Jr.) – One Night in Miami
"Tigress & Tweed" (Andra Day & Raphael Saadiq) – The United States vs. Billie Holiday
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Between the two nominees that feature the partnership of Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross, I feel very sure that they will take home the award here. Between Mank and Soul, I’ll go with the latter, given the inventiveness of that film and the current awards season rush that the Pixar film is experiencing; it is currently the second winningest film of the awards season behind Nomadland. In regards to Mank, I feel that the film’s campaigns has been focused on another category (see more later). Desplat’s score is attached to a mediocre film (The Midnight Sky), Göransson’s tremendous score is attached to a film that doesn’t have much power at these Globes (Tenet), and Howard’s score for News of the World is here for the ride (Tenet could be a dark horse winner if Reznor and Ross manage to lose twice at once, though).
Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross, and Jon Batiste – Soul
Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross – Mank
James Newton Howard – News of the World
Alexandre Desplat – The Midnight Sky
Ludwig Göransson – Tenet
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
This is almost a shoe-in. Disney and/or Pixar usually dominate this category even when they have a mediocre release. Soul happens to be one of the best Pixar films of the last number of years. Pit that up against a worse Pixar film (Onward), a decent Croods sequel, an underseen nominee (Over the Moon) and a film that deserves much more love (Wolfwalkers), and you basically have the red carpet laid out for Soul to prance its way to the stage. Unless there is some sort of a freak occurrence where votes get split and Wolfwalkers takes the cake, I can’t see this going any other way.
The Croods: A New Age
Onward
Over the Moon
Soul
Wolfwalkers
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Considering that Minari is a major awards season contender overall, it only makes sense that it does well here, especially since the Globes were so adamant on deeming this picture a foreign film. Possible winners include Another Round (which currently is the frontrunner for the International Oscar), or La Llorona (which has been a dark horse of sorts) I’m feeling Minari, though, especially as the Hollywood Foreign Press’s justification for having Minari here in this category in the first place.
Another Round (Denmark)
La Llorona (Guatemala)
The Life Ahead (Italy)
Minari (USA)
Two of Us (France)
BEST SCREENPLAY
Amongst these nominees, it only makes sense that Aaron Sorkin will squeak out a win, and it has nothing to do with being clearly better. Nomadland has placed its campaigning priorities as high as possible (more on that later). Mank and The Father are both well written, but I’d argue they aren’t defined by their writing quite like The Trial of the Chicago 7. Fennell’s clever and savage writing in Promising Young Woman might be a dark horse here, but Sorkin is a big and recognizable name, and it’s attached to his most successful film as a director; Sorkin just does well anyway. Is it the most deserving nominee? I’d argue no, but it isn’t about what I think subjectively.
Emerald Fennell – Promising Young Woman
Jack Fincher – Mank
Aaron Sorkin – The Trial of the Chicago 7
Florian Zeller and Christopher Hampton – The Father
Chloé Zhao – Nomadland
BEST DIRECTOR
This awards season, Nomadland has been going for broke when it comes to the big categories, and Chloé Zhao has had a hell of a season so far. It only makes sense that she starts claiming the more well known awards, too. It’s nice to see Fennell and King with their fantastically directed debuts here, and Fincher’s retrospective vision and Mank is also pleasant. The possible darkhorse is Sorkin, if The Trial of the Chicago 7 ends up overtaking Nomadland’s awards season success, but there’s something else that’s important here: the female presence. I feel it’s partially the academy’s way of proving that this is the year of the female gaze, and awarding a male director after so many years of problematic claims and backlash — especially when three women are nominated — might be a worse look than not having them at all (especially since I’d argue that Zhao and King are highly deserving of wins).
Emerald Fennell – Promising Young Woman
David Fincher – Mank
Regina King – One Night in Miami
Aaron Sorkin – The Trial of the Chicago 7
Chloé Zhao – Nomadland
This category is kind of all over the place. We knew Glenn Close would show up here (it’s a shame it isn’t for a better film: she deserves so much more!). No disrespect to any other candidate, but this category is really between Amanda Seyfried and Olivia Colman. I think Colman deserves it more for The Father, but The Father’s awards season climb only seems to just be getting started, so maybe she will win other upcoming awards. Seyfried has been the awards season representative for Mank, and where most of the film’s campaign’s focus has been placed. There’s a very big chance Colman takes this, but I’m feeling a little more confident in Seyfried right now.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Glenn Close – Hillbilly Elegy
Olivia Colman – The Father
Jodie Foster – The Mauritanian
Amanda Seyfried – Mank
Helena Zengel – News of the World
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
If you asked me a few weeks ago, I would be certain this would be a showdown between Leslie Odom Jr. and Sacha Baron Cohen. Since the release of Judas and the Black Messiah, it seems like Daniel Kaluuya could be a latecomer to disrupt the entire awards season (and good for him). His work has made a massive splash already, and his chances of winning an Academy Award have already skyrocketed according to many experts. The Golden Globes got that recognition early, so there’s quite a chance he can win. Otherwise, Cohen might due to the huge amount of Chicago 7 nominations across the board, or Odom Jr. could be a dark horse as well (he was previously the actor I believed would win until Kaluuya came into the picture).
Sacha Baron Cohen – The Trial of the Chicago 7
Daniel Kaluuya – Judas and the Black Messiah
Jared Leto – The Little Things
Bill Murray – On the Rocks
Leslie Odom Jr. – One Night in Miami
BEST ACTRESS-MUSICAL OR COMEDY
Sure, Rosamund Pike’s film just came out, and Anya Taylor-Joy seems to be the beloved performer of the 78th Golden Globes (her recognition for The Queen’s Gambit is worth noting). Michelle Pfeiffer being recognized is nice. Music is getting ripped apart (there always has to be one Golden Globe film like this). Let’s be real. This is likely going to be Maria Bakalova’s, whose awards season began as soon as Borat Subsequent Moviefilm dropped. If anything, she’s a rising possibility for the Best Supporting Actress Academy Award, and her placement here is slightly odd; it might guarantee her win and place her back on the right track to dominate the supporting categories. Otherwise, this could be Pike’s (Taylor-Joy as a final guess, simply because of her stature currently).
Maria Bakalova – Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Kate Hudson – Music
Michelle Pfeiffer – French Exit
Rosamund Pike – I Care a Lot
Anya Taylor-Joy – Emma
BEST ACTOR-MUSICAL OR COMEDY
I think this is between two people, and it’s Sacha Baron Cohen and Lin-Manuel Miranda (two very long names, mind you). I’m going Miranda and Hamilton, because I trust Disney’s backing of that film more than I trust Borat; that’s mainly because Borat has certainly prioritized Maria Bakalova as its awards season submission to make or break. Besides, Miranda has been getting the love of the general public often in recent memory. Then again, Cohen has won this award before for being Borat, so you never know.
Sacha Baron Cohen – Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
James Corden – The Prom
Lin-Manuel Miranda – Hamilton
Dev Patel – The Personal History of David Copperfield
Andy Samberg – Palm Springs
BEST ACTRESS-DRAMA
Despite the promise in this category, Viola Davis’ steam for Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom just doesn’t seem to be letting up. The United States vs. Billie Holiday doesn’t seem to be doing well critically; neither did Pieces of a Woman, but I feel like Vanessa Kirby has had a chance to find her footing this awards season already, unlike Andra Day whose season has begun considerably later. Frances McDormand was the biggest name in this category before Davis, and Nomadland seems to be aiming for the biggest awards in comparison (but consider McDormand a possibility). Another dark horse is Carey Mulligan, whose turn in Promising Young Woman has turned many heads and placed her on the map again (which is a shame, because she’s incredibly talented and should have had the attention of all ages ago).
Viola Davis – Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Andra Day – The United States vs. Billie Holiday
Vanessa Kirby – Pieces of a Woman
Frances McDormand – Nomadland
Carey Mulligan – Promising Young Woman
BEST ACTOR-DRAMA
Even though he’s amidst tough competition, Chadwick Boseman getting some posthumous love this year is highly possible; if anything, many people are predicting it. Riz Ahmed has a chance because of his recent indie award wins, and Hopkins has recency bias on his side (plus one of his best performances in decades), but Boseman’s awards season just doesn’t seem to be slowing down. His final role was his greatest, and it honestly competes with the performances here (I can safely say it is possibly the best, objectively, too); it’s just impossible to ignore Boseman right now for many reasons.
Riz Ahmed – Sound of Metal
Chadwick Boseman – Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Anthony Hopkins – The Father
Gary Oldman – Mank
Tahar Rahim – The Mauritanian
BEST PICTURE-MUSICAL OR COMEDY
Music and The Prom are highly controversial nominees for a few reasons. Palm Springs is a lovely instance where the Golden Globes and its silly insistence on dividing films into genre categories works out and highlights an underrated picture. Then, we have the same two heavyweights I brought up before: Hamilton and Borat Subsequent Moviefilm. This can go either way, but I’ll use my same reasoning as before. I’m giving Hamilton the slight edge, because 1) Disney, and 2) Borat didn’t sit well with everyone and the film’s campaign has placed Maria Bakalova at the forefront of its priorities. One last factor is that there’s a great chance Hamilton won’t be up for such big awards at the Academy Awards, given its nature (a filming of a stage production), so maybe Disney will go for broke now. I wouldn’t guess outside of these two films, though.
Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Hamilton
Music
Palm Springs
The Prom
BEST PICTURE-DRAMA
These are five really good nominees this year. In short, Mank’s campaign is running dry, and Promising Young Woman is a bit too daring for a show like this (it would be different if it was sweeping awards left, right, and centre until now, but it isn’t). The Father is excellent but a bit too recent. So, we’re left with the same two films as the Best Director category: Nomadland and The Trial of the Chicago 7. If the academy wishes to go safe, they’ll go with the latter, and begin Chicago 7’s slight takeover of the awards season. However, Nomadland has the most award wins this season so far, and it isn’t even close (Nomadland has 108 wins, Soul is second with 42, and The Trial of the Chicago 7 currently has 23, which pales in comparison). Nomadland’s awards season began when it won the People’s Choice Awards at the Toronto International Film Festival, and I don’t think it’s stopping anytime soon (it also has the critical upper-hand on Chicago 7).
The Father
Mank
Nomadland
Promising Young Woman
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Andreas Babiolakis has a Masters degree in Film and Photography Preservation and Collections Management from Ryerson University, as well as a Bachelors degree in Cinema Studies from York University. His favourite times of year are the Criterion Collection flash sales and the annual Toronto International Film Festival.